Daily Murders in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Official Data

The average number of per-day murders monthly in the country has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by new official data. However, security specialists have cautioned that homicide numbers may not signal enhanced countrywide security.

Marked Decline in Daily Averages

Officials reported an average of close to 55 killings a day in last November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was shared by the head of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that have been recorded in these months is very significant,” Sheinbaum said, noting that in November the lowest figure of homicides were documented for any November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Official Plan

Violent drug cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s heavily militarised efforts to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent times. The figure peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x greater than the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security plan for an apparently more pronounced drop in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader declared: “There is a strategy, there is oversight of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s security plan involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Increased coordination between government departments.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, security analysts warned that using homicide data to assess the situation of pacification was problematic. This is particularly true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“This would be positive news if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

According to the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the same period the previous year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not reliable for estimating the context of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the capacity or the will to properly identify and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month averages of daily homicides was similarly an issue because it may hide days when there were particularly elevated numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily average renders surges of violence less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and this past November for major offenses, according to government figures. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

However in spite of these actions, Mexico continues to be beset by extreme bloodshed, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-fueled bloodshed. In the previous month there was a high-profile murder of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the past year.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to voice their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to create a narrative of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas said.