Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.
Serious Barriers in the Selection Procedure
Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
