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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or simply the greatest upset.

But the current race is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and longtime strugglers ascending together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still