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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd